Fear Premiums, Bypass Infrastructure, and Equity Repricing: A Thematic Review of Chokepoint Disruptions and Energy-Sector Valuation in Asia's Import-Dependent Economies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65166/13yv3d73Keywords:
geopolitical risk premium, energy equities, Strait of Hormuz, infrastructure substitution, liquefied natural gas, macro-financial transmission, Asian import-dependent economiesAbstract
Chokepoint disruptions in energy trade raise a valuation question that existing research addresses only in part: how much of the return earned by energy firms during a disruption depends on the disruption continuing, and how much survives the physical response to it. This paper develops a conceptual distinction between disruption-contingent rents and structural returns, using the reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026 as a motivating case. The study is a non-empirical structured thematic review with comparative policy analysis. It synthesizes literature retrieved through question-driven, AI-assisted search across five themes: oil shocks and geopolitical risk premia, heterogeneity across energy equities, infrastructure substitution and policy buffers, non-substitutable liquefied natural gas flows and electricity-demand growth, and macro-financial transmission to Asian import-dependent economies. The synthesis indicates that geopolitical premia operate substantially through expectations, that energy equity segments earn returns through different cash-flow channels, and that bypass infrastructure and reserves reduce the severity of disruption without eliminating it. Some flows, notably LNG, resist rerouting, and import-dependent Asian economies face reported asymmetries in currency, inflation, and equity transmission. Five conditional propositions are advanced as analytical constructs and are not tested. The direct evidence on recent disruption episodes is limited, several key sources are preprints, and the motivating case remains unresolved. The paper does not assess the prospects of any firm or segment and does not constitute investment advice. It identifies event-study, panel, and Asia-focused designs as priorities for empirical testing, and it offers measured reflections for policy and institutional analysis.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Andrea Gwyneth B. Atento, Cherry Ann Marie H. Espelita, DBAc, Dr. Ramon George O. Atento (Author)
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