Bridging Global Health Workforce Gaps 2050: A Multilevel Analysis of Global Demand, Philippine Supply Fragilities, and Competency Alignment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65166/kgbpey79Keywords:
Global health workforce gaps, Competency alignment, Workforce mobility and migration, Long-term care demand, Health systems planning, Health workforce development, Analytics-driven workforce planning, Domestic health system resilience, Internationally educated nurses (IENs)Abstract
The accelerating instability of the global health workforce has emerged as a defining challenge for health systems in the twenty-first century. Verified projections indicate a shortfall of 11–18 million health workers by 2030, with analytic extensions showing potential deficits of 30–40 million by 2050 due to demographic aging, chronic disease escalation, and unprecedented retirement waves across advanced economies. This study offers a multilevel analysis of these global health workforce gaps and examines their intersection with the Philippine supply system, a recognized anchor of international mobility flows. Drawing on international forecasts, national training data, regulatory analyses, and competency-alignment literature, the paper demonstrates that global workforce demand is structurally outpacing supply and that analytics-driven workforce planning has become indispensable. Findings reveal that the Philippines—despite its historical prominence as a source of internationally educated nurses and caregivers—faces deepening domestic fragilities. Declining enrollment cycles, uneven educational quality, migration-driven attrition, and chronic underinvestment have weakened the country’s training pipeline. Competency mismatches in language proficiency, elderly care specialization, digital documentation, and regulatory adaptation further constrain readiness for both domestic health security and international deployment. Although selected regions such as Southern Luzon exhibit favorable demographic and educational potential, long-term workforce maldistribution and institutional undercapacity limit their ability to contribute meaningfully to national demand. Taken together, these results underscore that bridging global health workforce gaps requires coordinated investments in health workforce development, competency alignment, and deliberate pipeline modernization. Strengthening language and cultural preparation, upgrading regional training ecosystems, and aligning Philippine health education with evolving global standards are essential to sustaining the country’s comparative advantage while safeguarding domestic health system resilience through 2050.
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