Health Analytics of HIV Burden, Transmission, and Treatment in the Philippines and ASEAN, 1990–2024: Comparative Evidence from Official UNAIDS-Based Estimates
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65166/as9sy636Keywords:
HIV, health analytics, Philippines, ASEAN, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, antiretroviral therapy coverage, UNAIDS estimatesAbstract
This study examined long-run HIV dynamics in the Philippines and ASEAN using official annual HIV indicator series from 1990 to 2024. Employing a quantitative longitudinal comparative design, the study drew on secondary data from World Bank HIV indicators sourced from UNAIDS estimates. The Philippines served as the anchor case, while ASEAN countries functioned as comparator units where sufficient annual observations were available. The analysis covered six core indicators: people living with HIV (PLHIV), new HIV infections, new HIV infection rate, HIV prevalence among adults aged 15–49 years, AIDS-related deaths, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Because ART coverage had a shorter usable series, it was analyzed separately as a later-period treatment indicator. The official metadata identify the prevalence and incidence series as annual UNAIDS-based measures, with the prevalence series visibly spanning 1990–2024, while ART coverage is defined as the percentage of people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy. Results showed a pronounced long-run escalation of the Philippine HIV profile. From 1990 to 2024, PLHIV increased from 200 to 220,000, new HIV infections from 100 to 30,000, new HIV infection rate from 0.01 to 0.48 per 1,000 uninfected population, HIV prevalence from 0.1% to 0.3%, and AIDS-related deaths from 100 to 2,300. ART coverage rose from 0% in 2000 to 40% in 2024. Phase-based analysis indicated that the strongest acceleration occurred during 2000–2010, when annualized growth reached 31.8% for PLHIV, 24.8% for new infections, 25.9% for incidence, and 17.5% for AIDS-related deaths. In the latest-year ASEAN comparison, the Philippines ranked first in both new HIV infections and new HIV infection rate, but only fifth in PLHIV, joint seventh in prevalence, and last in ART coverage among comparison countries. These findings indicate that the Philippine HIV situation is best interpreted not as the region’s highest-prevalence case, but as a transmission-intensive and treatment-weak case within ASEAN. The study concludes that incidence-centered monitoring, treatment expansion, and longitudinal health analytics are essential for understanding and responding to the country’s HIV trajectory.
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