Fundamental and Technical Indicator Analysis of San Miguel Corporation: Financial Performance, Market Behavior, and Investment Evaluation

作者

  • Faye Del Mundo First Asia Institute of Technology and the Humanities ##default.groups.name.author##
  • Ramon George Atento First Asia Institute of Technology and the Humanities ##default.groups.name.author## https://orcid.org/0009-0001-7598-1443

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https://doi.org/10.65166/6vdtp816

关键词:

technical analysis, fundamental analysis, San Miguel Corporation, Valuation Metrics, Market Sentiment, Financial Performance, Investment Decision, Philippine Stock Exchange, Conglomerates, Emerging Markets

摘要

This study presents an applied business analytics case analysis of San Miguel Corporation (SMC), a Philippine conglomerate listed on the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE), by integrating indicator-based fundamental and technical perspectives within a single, audit-traceable workflow. Using publicly available secondary information spanning 2020 to October 31, 2025, the analysis draws on issuer/PSE disclosures and platform-generated market analytics (notably Simply Wall St and Investagrams). Platform outputs are treated as secondary representations of market data and interpreted descriptively within the stated window, with extraction dates identified in figure notes to support auditability. The fundamental component summarizes revenue performance, profitability, leverage, liquidity, market valuation, dividend stability, and segment-level resilience. Results indicate that SMC sustains strong revenue capacity and broadly stable operational performance across core units; however, profitability remains uneven and sensitive to volatility in fuel, energy, and infrastructure-linked activities. Balance-sheet structure reflects material financing risk: a current ratio of 1.35 suggests moderate short-term coverage, while a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.55 indicates elevated leverage that can constrain flexibility during periods of earnings weakness. Valuation indicators point to conservative market pricing. A low earnings multiple (P/E = 3.68) and sub-book valuation (P/B = 0.76) suggest discounted expectations despite continued shareholder payouts, with dividend data reflecting recurring distributions of approximately ₱0.35 per share. The technical component applies classical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, moving averages, volatility metrics, volume trends, and support–resistance thresholds) to infer market sentiment and trading momentum. Findings show strong short-term bullish momentum accompanied by cautionary overextension: an RSI reading above 74 indicates intense buying pressure but also implies overbought conditions where near-term consolidation is plausible. Trend snapshots reveal divergence across horizons—short-term uptrend (+12.17%), medium-term sideways movement (–1.37%), and a long-term downtrend (–17.67%)—suggesting that the rally has not yet overturned the broader bearish structure. Support–resistance mapping places the reference price (₱65.00) near resistance (₱65.48 and ₱68.80) with supports at ₱62.75 and ₱56.55; the price remains below the 200-day moving average and is accompanied by declining volume, reinforcing the need for confirmation of durability. Integrating these signals, the study concludes that SMC exhibits moderate upside potential but material structural risks, supporting an overall Hold investment recommendation. The paper underscores the value of a dual-analysis, figure-anchored approach for evaluating diversified conglomerates in emerging markets where macroeconomic pressures, regulatory constraints, and portfolio complexity jointly shape corporate performance and equity valuation.

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卷 1 期 2 (2025): December 2025: International Journal of Health & Business Analytics

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