SDG 8 Dynamics and SDG 3 Outcomes in ASEAN: Two-Way Fixed Effects Evidence on Under-5 and Neonatal Mortality (2000–2023)
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https://doi.org/10.65166/4qvazm02关键词:
ASEAN, SDG 3, SDG 8, under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, GDP per capita growth, labor productivity growth, panel data, two-way fixed effects, ADB KIDB SDMX摘要
This study evaluates SDG interlinkages between SDG 8 economic dynamics and SDG 3 child survival outcomes in ASEAN using a balanced panel of 11 economies observed annually from 2000 to 2023 (N = 264), compiled from the Asian Development Bank Key Indicators Database (KIDB) SDMX system. Under-5 mortality (SH_DYN_MORT) and neonatal mortality (SH_DYN_NMRT) are modeled as functions of real GDP per capita growth (NY_GDP_PCAP) and real GDP per employed person growth (SL_EMP_PCAP; labor productivity growth) using two-way fixed effects (economy and year) with economy-clustered standard errors. In the preferred two-way fixed effects models, GDP per capita growth is statistically weak for both outcomes (under-5 mortality: β = 0.0130, SE = 0.2369; neonatal mortality: β = 0.0141, SE = 0.0713). By contrast, labor productivity growth is positively associated with mortality (under-5: β = 0.2540, SE = 0.1397, p = 0.069; neonatal: β = 0.0680, SE = 0.0348, p = 0.050). Timing robustness tests using one-year lagged predictors (N = 253) preserve and strengthen the productivity-mortality association (under-5: β = 0.3043, SE = 0.1337, p = 0.0228; neonatal: β = 0.0705, SE = 0.0360, p = 0.0499), whereas lagged GDP per capita growth remains weak. Results indicate that productivity gains in ASEAN over 2000-2023 are not reliably accompanied by improvements in child survival, consistent with mediating distributional, sectoral, and health-system channels that condition whether SDG 8 progress translates into SDG 3 gains.
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